By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is looking to regain upside traction, with bitcoin attempting to top $110,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index has risen over 1% in the past 24 hours alongside double-digit gains in a select few tokens such as HYPE, KHYPE and XMR.
Sentiment on social media remains bullish, thanks to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 bps next week, continuing the so-called liquidity easing cycle. Still, it’s worth noting that the dollar index is continuing to exhibit bullish price action. A strengthening dollar could limit upside in BTC.
Risk proxies such as the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) aren’t supportive either. Both have recently penetrated key support levels. (Check the TA section). Meanwhile, key volume studies point to underlying weakness in the bitcoin market.
Taken together, these factors validate the persistent put bias in BTC options listed on Deribit and Standard Chartered’s short-term bearish outlook.
Founders of the newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said that the recent banking funding stress and liquidity tightening are “keeping BTC anchored and negatively impacting underlying risk dynamics.” Still, they added that the bull run is far from over, pointing to lower bond yields and economic slowdown risks as catalysts for aggressive Fed easing that could cause a “melt up.”
In traditional markets, oil rose 4% on both sides of the Atlantic after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. Increased volatility in the oil market could cause risk aversion. Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 23, 9 a.m.: Binance Square is hosting an AMA about “how early-stage projects grow, build communities and navigate their Alpha journey.”
- Macro
- Oct. 23, 8:30 a.m.: Owing to the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Labor is not releasing its usual weekly initial and continuing jobless claims reports.
- Oct. 23, 10 a.m.: U.S. Sept. Existing Home Sales Est. 4.1M.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- SSV DAO is voting to amend DIP-31, refocusing SSV 2.0 on Compose, a protocol enabling atomic cross-rollup transactions to reduce L2 fragmentation and advance SSV beyond distributed validator technology. Voting ends Oct. 23.
- Unlocks
- Oct. 23: Soon (SOON) to unlock 4.52% of its circulating supply worth $12.4 million.
- Token Launches
- Oct. 23: DFDV common stock holders to receive a warrant dividend.
- Oct. 23: Venice (VVV) to reduce its token supply inflation from 10M/year to 8M/year.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Francisco Rodrigues
- Jupiter’s native token, JUP, rose more than 3% in the last 24 hours after the decentralized exchange posted strong growth across key business metrics in the third quarter.
- The Solana-based project is also pushing to launch its own stablecoin and prediction market.
- Quarterly revenue rose 19.2% to $45.8 million, while trading volume, driven by both spot and perpetual products, jumped 71% to $242.8 billion.
- Fees generated reached $121.5 million, up nearly 48% from the second quarter. Despite the growth, JUP’s market cap edged down 1.5% to $1.35 billion.
- Jupiter attributed the growth to new product rollouts, including its Ultra v3 trading engine and a lending protocol that the team says is one of the fastest-growing on Solana. Active wallets increased 5% to 8.4 million, and total value locked (TVL) rose 41.7% to $3.4 billion.
- JUP outperformed the wider crypto market, which rose 1.6% based on the performance of the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.
Derivatives Positioning
- Open interest (OI) in HYPE futures surged 17% in 24 hours, reaching a two-week high of 40.24 million HYPE. Occurring alongside a rise in price and positive funding rates, the increase indicates growing demand for leveraged bullish exposure.
- OI in BTC and ETH has barely changed, a sign traders are reluctant to place bets ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI release.
- Volmex’s BVIV, which measures the annualized 30-day implied volatility in BTC, has pulled back slightly to 50% but remains well above the September low of 35%. The elevated level reflects persistent concerns arising from newfound risks like auto-deleveraging and liquidity issues.
- Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies continue to hover near zero in a sign of balanced market conditions. XMR and BNB rates are slightly negative, indicating a bias for bearish short positions.
- On Deribit, flows featured BTC put spreads. Overall, puts continue to trade at a premium to calls.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 1.63% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $109,459.82 (24hrs: +1.74%)
- ETH is up 2.92% at $3,892.29 (24hrs: +2.05%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.57% at 3,602.20 (24hrs: +1.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.1303% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.15% at 99.04
- Gold futures are up 1.73% at $4,135.80
- Silver futures are up 2.22% at $48.74
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 48,641.61
- Hang Seng closed up 0.72% at 25,967.98
- FTSE is up 0.43% at 9,555.49
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.21% at 5,650.92
- DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.71% at 46,590.41
- S&P 500 closed down 0.53% at 6,699.40
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.93% at 22,740.40
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.32% at 29,982.98
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.49% at 2,894.55
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 4 bps at 3.993%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are little changed at 6,738.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are little changed at 25,057.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.24% at 46,672.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.79% (-0.12%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03557 (0.57%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,116 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.17
- Total Fees: 2.89 BTC / $312,945
- CME Futures Open Interest: 142,385 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.34%
Technical Analysis
- The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) recently dived out of a bullish trendline, signaling renewed seller dominance.
- The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) prolonged range play has resolved bearishly.
- These breakdowns suggest potential for a broad-based risk aversion ahead.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $320.33 (-5.4%), +0.94% at $323.33 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $124.79 (-3.9%), +1.69% at $126.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.34 (-12.88%), +1.23% at $37.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $52.63 (-8.1%), +1.48% at $53.41
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.15 (-4.58%), +1.36% at $19.41
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.99 (-8.13%), +1.21% at $19.22
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.8 (-7.44%), +2.36% at $18.22
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.86 (-10.18%), +2.43% at $17.27
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $51.32 (-8.37%), +2.81% at $52.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.28 (-5.67%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $280.81 (-6.99%), +2.3% at $287.28
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $22.53 (-4.17%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.44 (-6.28%), +2.16% at $13.73
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.75 (-6.68%), +3.79% at $4.93
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.86 (-4.62%), +6.99% at $1.99
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flows: -$101.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.84 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs:
- Daily net flows: -$18.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.59 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
