According to comments from the creator of the stock-to-flow model, the familiar four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings may no longer be a sure guide for traders.
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The analyst — known as PlanB — warned that using just three past cycles to predict future tops is risky, and he said the next peak is not guaranteed to fall 18 months after the last halving in October.
Cycle Timing May Vary Widely
PlanB told followers that the top could arrive in 2026, or 2027, or even 2028, and that he is more focused on Bitcoin’s average price level than on a single high or low.
Reports have disclosed that some market participants believe $126,000 was the peak and expect BTC to slide below $100,000 next year. PlanB called that view “a big misunderstanding,” arguing that three cycles do not form a strong statistical pattern.
Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because … the 4 year cycle!?
IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… pic.twitter.com/tehnZ4rRab
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025
Spot Versus Paper Liquidity
According to some experts, the last bull run’s top was driven largely by short-term liquidity in paper derivative markets.
Based on reports, they see less of that paper-driven liquidity this cycle, while longer-term spot buying has held up so far. That shift could mean the next major move in price will come from different places than before.
Trader Sentiment Shifts With Price Moves
Reports show Bitcoin briefly fell below $103,000 last week, sparking worries that a bear market had started. Analysts noted that sentiment changed quickly — traders were hoping for a bounce so they could exit at a decent level.
Recent action has been bouncy. Bitcoin dropped more than 3% over a few hours on Tuesday morning Asian trading, slipping to about $107,000 before finding support near $108,000.
No Clear Phase Transition Yet
PlanB said he has not seen a clear “phase transition” for Bitcoin in this cycle. That means either the big institutional-driven jump is still ahead, or the market has moved toward a steadier price regime shaped by funds, mandates, and rebalancing.
Both possibilities, he argued, could be positive for Bitcoin over time because they imply different forms of lasting demand.
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Short-term volatility has kept traders on edge. Even when price recovers, the mood can flip fast. Based on reports, crypto markets still need stronger fundamentals or sustained flows to calm nerves and push prices higher for a longer stretch.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
